World’s leading financial institutions raise China’s 2024 growth forecasts

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BEIJING, 12th April, 2024 (WAM) — A number of leading global financial institutions and banks have revised their 2024 growth forecasts for China upward after improved data and effective policy delivery has raised expectations of a brighter outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

According to China Central Television, Goldman Sachs forecasts a five percent growth, whereas Morgan Stanley has notably adjusted its projection to 4.8 percent from the previous estimate of 4.2 percent, aligning closely with China’s official target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Last month, Citibank upgraded its forecast for China’s GDP expansion to 5.0 percent from 4.6 percent previously.

These adjustments were driven by China’s strong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), stabilised property sector, better-than-expected exports and manufacturing activity.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the PMI for China’s manufacturing sector coming in at 50.8 in March, bouncing back to the expansion zone, while a private survey published on Monday by Chinese business media group Caixin showed manufacturing PMI in March growing to 51.1, up from 50.9 in the previous month.

In March, the sub-index for service business activity surged to 52.4, marking a notable increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the preceding month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflects contraction.